In my view, leave basis open, hopefully it can only get better. I am viewing the current weather situation in terms of a possible La Nina, which means(depending on the strength of the La Nina) that based on historical yield data, in terms of HRWW, it MAY be below trend, which will reduce carryout(depending on acres), and hence basis, BUT at this moment in time, it is too early to gauge the impact of a POSSIBLE La Nina event during the winter months, more time is needed.


http://www.lbk.ars.usda.gov/WEWC/ensoag.aspx

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/