|
Earlton Ontario | I believe weather issues alone will push july to the 425-430 resistance......Futures have held rather well considering all the bearishness (bearish reports and larger than life SA Crops)in the market. Bears have run out of news till NA planting begins, and IF planting goes late again with so much work to be done (2009 harvest and tillage), it doesn't take a brain surgeon to figure the out-come.
Three other things I believe to become a strong realty to propel prices further
1. Real Inflation......................crude/ethanol/fertilizers...........farmers must sell at a profit or close the bins.
2. Depreciation of US Dollar.............HUGE impact in Canada from early 90's to mid 2000's.......Exports will run.
3. El Nino..........the market loves to trade the what-if weather patterns...................truth is we are one drought away from a powder keg market...........heck some people still remember the last el-nino!!!
Now my biggest concerns is how our governments ratify todays trade disputes. Especially when our biggest customers are looking at OTHER options! It is said it cost 10 times the amount to lose and re-gain a customers trust rather than continually keep him happy. In ag that comes from the farmers pockets! Could we just send Japan and mexico some flowers???
Wild-Card.................I believe wheat to be something of interest. With late NA fall planting, potential late NA spring planting in spring wheat areas, crop size, 2009 quality issues there is so much to sort out....The fact that wheat can be grown anywhere on the planet and the variability in weather patterns the world is seeing, even though inventories have started to rise, wheat has driven market sentiment both bull and bears radically in recent history. With the advent of Russia, Ukraine, eastern europe new found oil wealth and the major investments into black sea region while filling chinese demand with cheaper wheat, I'm a little perplexed how this is all going to play out for us here. I don't feel very good about it at this point. | |
|
corn ready to buy or not
