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| A little analysis here.
I blew out of July beans today when they came back down through the lows. I bought more on the first break. Still have my corn.
IF THERE IS ONE MESSAGE I CAN DELIVER BEFORE THE GUY IN THE BLACK HOOD COMES DOWN TO GET ME..is: forget your bias (talking to speculators here)..is: when you have buyers...you can walk the market down. If you do not have buyers..there is no trade for a seller. Grab that concept!
I have been friendly in the short term on soybeans..but an intermediate term bear & long term bull. I will explain in detail in the next newsletter. We experienced a cycle where the funds covered shorts...now are slightly less short I suspect..will find out tomorrow afternoon....these markets are sold out.
Except I think there is a developing thought the weather may imply more bean acres. When you trade these markets in the short run it is all how the money is positioned.
If I come in and get good fills on SELLING a few packages of beans, for example, and it is not a commercial on the buy side...I get a little paranoid. We have a wide ranging sideways pattern here. This morning early, I was feeling gutsy as Europe closed well yesterday afternoon..I've made some money trading these beans during the past couple of weeks....then I saw the export data..knew I was in trouble....expected a lower open..when you are in this kind of market that chops absent a real trend it is risky to blow out of a position, but I did when we took out the second level of lows. Now, what has to be thought out, are the funds going to pound this thing for a few days, get short in the hole?...then try to cover in a market of mediocre open interest? I do not know.
Or, are we going to build open interest on the downside and try the contract lows? There is an appetite for soybeans...I also believe, and will cover the subject later, an appetite for corn...but you cannot stand in front of the funds. We are noting a great deal of spread action in all of the grain markets which also provide some distortion. If these lows hold one more time, I am ready to go back in....If we take out the lows of this sideways pattern, then we will most likely try substantially lower levels and have to wait for the april-may period to build a base.
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corn ready to buy or not
