There has been a pretty decent carry in the market for wheat as well as Corn so yes there are still some stocks in the country elevators here... also a decent amount still in store in producer's hands in open storage.

It's pretty apparent from the reports that demand for wheat is currently "lackluster." In the early 1980's we exported over 1.7 Billion bushels.. USDA just forecast the 09/10 exports of wheat at 825 mln bushels.. which is less than half of what we did almost 30 years ago.. The US has once again become the "residual supplier" as other producers have increased production on the price rallies of the past couple of years. The Black Sea region.. Ukraine and so forth have almost double wheat production over the recent decade.. so this competition will probably not easily "go away."  The changes are structural.. we've developed a domestic biofuel industry and the rest of the world has stepped in to fill our export markets.. as expected.. and this will probably continue.

On the supply side US producers were unable to turn acreage back around from fall crops to wheat sowings and acreage planted have fallen about 6 mln acres this year on top of losing about 4 mln acres last year... (I don't have the time this morning to provide the links.. this is believed true.. although my memory is fuzzy on the precise numbers.. should be close..??)

It doesn't appear that this lost acreage to other crops are going to be missed from the supply and demand tables on wheat. In fact as I have been saying for quite some time now.. "we probably need to continue to switch out of wheat to other crops.." The Cotton market looks good again with an improving economy as does the Feed Grains market as ethanol production is still expected to expand.

USDA didn't lower the Corn crop very much.. but also hasn't looked at the Dakota's where a lot of lower tw corn may still be out in the elements. Most analyst expect a decent to healthy grind number for ethanol next year... maybe around that 4.6 to 4.8 Billion bushel number.. so even though we are adding to ending stocks on Corn.. we really need to get upwards of about 2.5 Billion bushel to prepare... As the Tree Ring (which I thought was a very good point btw.. good job) post below points out.. We are overdue for a downturn in yields.. and given a 13 to expected 14 Billion bu demand base in the Corn.. that will be a red hot 4th of July firework moment when it occurs.. sometime in the future.. Should it occur this year.. and yes with all the moisture and snow pack still to melt in the Upper Midwest.. more think we have too much moisture vs not enough.. but should it occur this year the highs in 2008 would be in play...

Therefore, until the Carry/Out to use ratio's get back into balance in corn.. the markets are going to be nervous.. only 6 weeks until the planters need to roll and many fields are still under snow... So I don't think USDA want's to light the fuse right now...  You can go look at the out years in FAPRI's numbers.. they are required reading for most marketing aficionado's

http://www.fapri.iastate.edu/briefing_book/2010/BrfBk2010.pdf

As far as wheat basis... that Carry Out has gone from a very snug 306 mil bu two years ago to an ample 1,001 today.. notice how adding the 1 to 1,000 makes one pause if the next one won't be 1,100.. ??? USDA is good with the numbers... lol.. The thing that is propping the wheat market up right now is the corn s/d's (see above..) You can lock in a decent price (vs history.. costs..???) by "selling the carry." Right now N/C wheat is higher than nearby and a good value in pricing some 2011 crop which is about $.80 higher on the board... be careful.. consider your production risks.. etc.. evaluate your crop insurance coverage and needs and how that would work with your marketing plans.. but it's out there.

I expect the wheat market to become the stick to bludgeon the corn market lower at some point... (Is this like Curling?.. the modern day Buffalo Bludging.. http://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=153320&posts=17#M1102867 ??  Sorry got to take life with a little bit of humor when you can.. and this wheat market is going to need all the help it can get.) 

Yup that's what lies ahead.. subject to a late freeze event or what not... Recovering economies should help wheat demand also.. but with good weather even these smaller planted crops "could" suffice.. time will tell.

A lot of marketing plans include building more storage on farm and elsewhere right now.. the domestic demand base has grown immensly.. Ethanol grind from a couple biln bushels headed to 5 billion bushels within a year or two.. that's way bigger than the lost wheat export market.. again as production cycle's.. producer's may be positioning themselves to capture a short crop spike in prices.. at some point down the road.. probably beyond this crop year.. watching the El Nino weather pattern.

Probably didn't answer your question(s) but did my best.. wheat crop looks decent/good here

"cheers."