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| You are correct, everywhere north of you is full of wheat. Central and Western KS elevators/terminals are still holding wheat and making $$ on the enormous carries in the wheat market. The problem is much of that wheat is lower pro wheat and I would say there is a chance they look to dump some of it prior to harvest in order to make room for (hopefully) better quality new crop wheat. The potential is there for basis to weaken even more prior to and at the start of harvest. You might be in better shape if you end up with some high protein high quality stuff, but even those premiums may start to bleed with no export trade and another 20 mil bushels cut from milling use this morning. Hard to be positive wheat basis, especially with a decent crop coming on as you mentioned.
You asked what it takes to get that old crop moved out by harvest? Only one way-make it cheap enough to a user through a wider basis. | |
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Basis on wheat.
