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cropsey, il 61731 | 1. I have sold out of old crop beans - rallys are eminent
2. I still have some old crop corn - hard to believe that 3000 bushels weighs so much on the market
3. No the world does not revolve around me, but the markets do.
That said, local elevator guy seems to think a 2 is way more likely than a 4 in front of the corn price. He probably is looking at the piles on his various lots - so maybe some bias, but he also indicated that's what their marketing advisor was of the same opinion. I was really thinking about doing a basis contract since it's about as tight as it's been for a long while, but the elevator mgr didn't think I'd be so happy. Even Roach has advised buying puts for the next 16 crops at pretty high prices. It's seems the sentiment is sell it all now the show is over.
Is there a reason for crop prices to be higher except that our break evens are closer to $4 than $3? The CME says 'not my problem'. Perhaps technicals will take over the market and we'll see those $11 beans. The real fundamental is 401K and IRA dollars continue to flow into funds and their little side bets in commodities tend to be the biggest plays made all year. Do they have a reason to start buying commodities? Oil is kind of exciting, but corn and beans may get the Conan.
My 1.82 cents (plateau eroding),
Pat | |
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March 10 crop report
