Fall ammonia tons are down. Worldwide production is down. 

Why are nitrogen fertilizer prices rising?  Look at urea:

- China 5M tons short normal export

- Iran production offline, typically 4.8M tons per year

- Europe still 75% operating rate, missing 3M tons production

5M + 4.8M + 3M = 12.8M tons per year

That is 1M tons missing per month.  Global supplies are TIGHT right now.