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Cattle Cycle... is this time different ?
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Jim
Posted 12/29/2024 22:31 (#11032579 - in reply to #11031991)
Subject: RE: Cattle Cycle... is this time different ?


Driftless SW Wisconsin

Cattle are a retirement project for me. Having said that, the average size US cow/calf cowherd is still around 50 cows. Two years ago I overwintered around 60 head, comprised of about 40 cows and bred heifers and around 20 calves. So retirement project or not I am close to the average size US cow/calf operation that has been the longtime source of calves for the rest of the US beef industry.

With the severe local drought in 2023 and some health issues, now resolved, I sold about half my herd in 2023 and sold/processed few more early in 2024. Currently rebuilding but will have nothing to sell in 2025.  Kept all my May 2024 heifer calves so currently have all females (cows, bred heifers and heifer calves) and a very good bull. Heifer calves won't have a calf until May 2026. I can start processing the cows' and bred heifers' 2025 bull calves as yearling steers in 2026.

Producing beef is just a long, slow process. Getting in is very difficult unless you can take over an existing, usually family, operation. There is a tremendous delay between startup investment and seeing any sort of cash flow return.

Even expanding an existing cow/calf operation requires foregoing some income for a couple years at least.  

At the same time, demand for my beef is up. Frequent phone calls. The other family owned grass-fed operation I have been referring customers to has a sign on their website "sold out of ground beef"

I recently ran into a rep from a local grass fed beef coop making a delivery to one of my former restaurant customers. He was asking if I had any steers ready. He said they were really short of animals relative to demand.

Posting this mostly for those readers not directly raising beef. It's an interesting, but slow business with questionable returns in the distant future. 

Easy to see why young folks would rather drive a tractor, sprayer and combine and get returns in the fall, pretty much guaranteed by the government. Sure there's usually a lot of land, input and machinery debt in row cropping but at least you have some cash flow.

Cow/calf is often a labor of love, it has to be.

 

ETA: I don't buy any cattle other than an occasional very good registered Hereford bull. I'm currently using a home raised son of my last purchased bull. BTDT and purchased females just don't work for me.



Edited by Jim 12/29/2024 22:38
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