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North Central Illinois | Ed, I always enjoy your posts and will usually click on anything with your name on it because I know it will contain something interesting! I haven't read Bunge much but I did read the article that you pasted. It pretty much confirms what we already knew. China is consuming a very large percentage of what we grow. I don't know about anyone else but if the SA crop is anywhere close to what everyone is calling for, I can't help but think that soybean prices are headed into the toilet. Carryout will explode while demand stays about the same. My big concern is that when the SA crop sends the soybean market plummeting, corn will go along for the ride even though fundamentals aren't really all that bearish for corn. Personaly, I am looking to put more fall cash sales on the books at $4.00 or higher. I will also look to get rid of most of my old crop at $3.80 to $3.95. With high input costs and crazy weather all year long, 2009 was about survival. We ended up with light, wet, good yielding corn. If I can finish off my sales in that $3.90 area I will have survived quite well. To me 2010 has a lot more to offer in terms of profitability. I have been an active seller of 2010 corn with anything with a 4 in front of it. With input costs drastically reduced for this year anything near $4 should be very profitable. Sorry, I probably didn't answer any of your questions, but now you know my thoughts on the markets. This information is worth exactly what you paid for it!! | |
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