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| I will get you added early in the morning. Wrapping up my week now & thankful I survived.
Quite candidly, to be a little friendly in here is in contrast to the known fundamentals...could be a lot of beans moving out of SA...quite a bit of corn around...BUT:
On the other side of the coin, there are some questions and I will elaborate more in the newsletter. When I decide to operate from the long side I measure the risk of ownership & for a speculator there are a couple of good price points to say "uncle." They are not really that far away in view of the volatile nature of these markets. So, I see risk, but a small risk. In addition, the spec's ARE NOT LOADED WITH LONGS which means if this thing turns sour, you aren't going to get beat over the head every session with liquidating longs; next, the spec's are still net short -except sneaking in a bit on the long side- the commercials lightening up implies their BOOK is getting a little light and it was good to see some ownership change on the commercial side which means some grain moved in the last 10 days (or title to the grain) ..the market handled it okay. The USER side are waiting for bargains....yet this market holds together....I noted in the CBOT bulletin this afternoon an analyst commented the potential snow melt is a ridiculous concern...that rather brash statement suggests to me a fellow whose 'making margin calls.' Or, is a Predictor & things aren't going his way.
All of the above DOES NOT MEAN THE MARKET WILL GO HIGHER, it does mean to me, the path of least resistance is on the UPSIDE if the flat shoe guys get sweaty for some reason. And, of course, the American way is to figure out a few subtle ways to get them sweaty. Or, they will carry my sweat-laden body out the back door. One or the other. Been there before so it will not be a new experience.
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Commitment of Traders
