|
| No geopolitical in grains that I see. I think the current rally is primarily because the money is wrong....folks got short prematurely ...however, this potential snow melt is creeping up on us fast ...the market is set up expecting more corn acres...argentina inflation is thru the roof, transportation costs in SA are on the verge of exploding higher, in some cases, already have....I sense a lot of commercials, except China as they have been consistent buyers, are waiting for the big price break....its not happening...which does not mean it won't, it is a matter of expectations...there is a story afloat the next fish catch in Peru will be arbitrarily reduced by the government...I believe the livestock market is again on solid footing except it may churn in here and may react if grains rally further...I have a lot more reasons which will elaborate later. This could be a quick upside rally and then down hard ...or it could get legs if the weather becomes a concern. I was pretty active today & wear a headset with Wagner & Mozart ringing into my ears (okay, yes it might seem a little bizarre) & removed the headset about mid-day to watch Alan Simpson, a couple of pundits & some bureaucrats. The way I feel tonight...those of us with an interest in agriculture have maybe 12 - 16 months to grab what we can...as I think we are going to hit the wall in a couple of years....Simpson is an articulate old codger and have watched him for years....they bring him in because he can do the 'folksy common sense' rhetoric to folks....what the American people do not understand, and may not be able to handle...1) entitlements are going to get cut...2) taxes are going up.....3) our children under 40 are cooked geese unless they are in healthcare, lawyers, politicians or in a profession where they work with their hands to repair and maintain depreciable assets. Simpson's committee is simply the TOOL to make the recommendations so Congress can vote without repercussions back home.....who in the heck would want to invest in a new business in the current atmosphere? If you are on the medicare-social security gravy train like me....its okay yet...but I see a future where healthcare will be rationed, no other choice, and most likely some bureaucrat will figure out a way to terminate some of us...or there is always state or federal prison as the healthcare is near medicaid status and guaranteed. Some choice!!! If you are under 40, it's time to investigate other geographical opportunities. | |
|
RUMBLING GUT
