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S Illinois | US soybeans offers began to be cheaper about a month ago and new crop sales began to ramp up. This is about a month later than what was seen in prior years. Actual physical movement of US beans will start in late Sept/early Oct coinciding with US harvest being in full swing. Brazil is out of "cheap beans" and the US should be the dominant player for a few months. Exports are a somewhat drawn out proposition as the lead time from sale to landed is 3+ months normally. So the export sales the US is getting right now are for beans that won't be in China until Oct/Nov.
The issue this past season when it comes to price and exports is the US bean export sale season has been condensed. Brazil soybean supplies are able to stretch longer into the traditional US selling season. So instead of Brazil bean supplies lasting China 6-7 months of the year, they now are able to supply China's needs for 8-9 months. Unfortunately Brazil also has an ocean freight advantage over the US to China.
Currently Brazil is expected to export roughly 3.8 billion bu of beans. China import demand is around 4 billion bu. Brazil is getting close to exporting as many beans as China imports. Logistics and other countries needs will prevent China from using only SA beans at least until Brazil finds a better way for storage. So that leaves the US filling in that 3-4 month void in Oct-Jan. The US will have to look to other countries where we may have a freight advantage for export growth. | |
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At what point will Brazil begin to not have enough soybeans for.china
