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Corn & bean charts. Corn fails key reversal. Beans enter trade war levels
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fatan sassy
Posted 8/14/2024 16:26 (#10851106 - in reply to #10850955)
Subject: RE: Corn & bean charts. Corn fails key reversal. Beans enter trade war levels


northern edge of north central Missouri
Dan Loehr - 8/14/2024 13:47

fatan sassy - 8/14/2024 09:39

tink - 8/14/2024 08:23

The last run in corn started here, as shown with the daily and weekly charts.

Reversals are useful when they work. Change of trend often occurs without them.








So true. They are useful WHEN they work.
Which begs the question….are they useful at all?

Or just another “rule” that people wrongly assume has validity?



I used the term "rule" for lack of a better term
IF these signals worked every time I'd be hanging out with my best friend Warren Buffett today
We all have to find something to drive decisions --I'm a farmer
Fundamentals IMO are way too hard
Gut impulses are not very dependable
hard to guess IF prices will be 90% over or 20% under my Cost of production
Hard to pin down our actual production before it's in the bin
I like lines on a bar chart which was created by what happened in the past --
We're still in business --don't work even close to all the time

I'm wrongly assuming validity looking at the past??
BUT what works better?

Fatan sassy "What works well for you??" Criticizing is easy

Dan



What works well for me are true markets like land and on the buying side, and anything I buy for the farm or anything else.
All real markets.

What works well for me are 1000 management decisions. What works well for me is getting the best price available to me at the moment I decide to sell something.

I avoid Harvest basis.

I live for real markets of all kinds.
Frankly, nobody beats me when a pencil and calculator and thinking is required. It’s fun.

On the luck side of things I do the best anyone can do and play perceived or real odds. Incremental sales. More percentage of sales in the spring months.
Avoid marketing three days before a major USDA report and try to avoid marketing anything following USDA reports unless it happened to be friendly.
Where I farm I make sure I’m not overly presold. Especially beans in July or earlier. Its risky.
I wasn’t criticizing anybody or anything. I was sharing my opinion on charts in this case the same as you.

I do use charts. I use them the same way that I assume traders do. I do not use them as a day trader does. I use them the way that I would use them if I were trading something that I had no idea what it was. They provide historical values.They are a guide and provide information as to where battles will be fought between bulls and bears. But USDA is the force that determines who wins many battles.

Are use timing meaning how much time do I have left to determine my level of aggression? In a year like this were prices, never reached the level that I thought they would I got behind. And I remain behind.

The combined psychology of all the participants is what I need to know and I try to determine that as best I can with all the information that I have available to me.

Basically, I know the difference between what is management and skill and what is Monday morning quarterbacking and trying to guess what the USDA is going to say next. Those are games of luck and I don’t do any better and probably not any worse than anybody else guessing them.

And I’ve learned to respect the power that the gamblers have on our markets. Distasteful as it is.
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