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NW Iowa
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NEIAAG
Posted 7/25/2024 21:34 (#10826385 - in reply to #10826367)
Subject: RE: NW Iowa


fatan sassy - 7/25/2024 21:24

reformedbanker - 7/25/2024 20:48

Might call my state representative later and see if we can make statistics mandatory for school.

https://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=1166249&mid=10...

"Here is a thought experiment that may help you.

Throw a dart at a map in your area of concern and draw a circumference around it at a 20 mile radius. it is statistically extremely likely that somewhere on that circumference will be substantially worse than the center and another point on that same circumference will be substantially better."



Hey banker, you know anything about probabilities and processing data from a chart showing the average track of price over a 10 year period of a specific contract???
Or do you only know probabilities of darts and circles?



A 10, 20 or 40 year seasonal chart is exactly that, the average of what price did on that date over 'X' years. There are outliers on those where counter trend moves occurred. But because of their number, they do not skew enough to be readily seen. That said, its an seasonal average. If you want to know what the likely outcome of price is in any given year, you need to go to the current chart and examine the market structure of that chart, not the seasonal average chart.

Take care.
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