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For all of you hoping or "seeing" a turnaround
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AGtrader
Posted 1/31/2010 21:29 (#1051610)
Subject: For all of you hoping or "seeing" a turnaround



please!

Listen, it doesnt take a rocket scientist to see we are screwed for YEARS. we will see DEFLATION for YEARS.
We were breaking records on the way down not seen since the 1930's... and that turnaround didnt start until WWII.
Commercial RE still has to go thru what residential RE has. people are renegotiating with banks even AFTER they have been foreclosed on! i know people who havent paid their mortgage in two years! what this means is the banks have yet to realize these losses on their balance sheets.
The local school districts budgets have been in some cases halved from poor tax receipts. this will mean more layoffs.

For those wishing for inflation... forget it. as a rule, you cant have inflation with a massive debt in place. it just doesnt work. Grain prices will plummet, oil prices will plummet. in a few years, a massive fleet of govt subsidized electric cars will hit the market. LED lights will be used in everything and everywhere.


bottom line,

sell all commodities.

beans to 8.50 then the 6s
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