|
New Mexico | take your high end of 09, and your low end.....then find that cash middle, perhaps that's a reasonable goal for 010 too.
Granted once you know that middle, the goal might be to improve said by say 15 to 20 cents on total sales.
btw, We use Grass and cottonseed on grass when needed. Whole deal is grazed here.
It won't matter in NM if corn is cheap or high...not much use for corn here except for possibly corn tortillas.
Any Midwest clients are long sold out, so we're actually looking for some floors to long this market.
Corn is simply at a seasonal low and some simply crying in their soup because they missed the last price level.
Will it drop to last springs lows or likely lower? Why not ( limited use product with some negative quality issues ).
Matter of fact, the base price is in fact the govt conjugated floor price ( simply figure that out for your area ).
By spring though, with talk of some farmers perhaps with offset collateral balance problems at banks and perhaps some drouth talk...then the market should start to rally a touch.
If???? as You say is true that corn is 10 to 15% less affective than before due to quality...that can work 3 ways.
It will either cheapen the market due to the issue, or it will at some point raise the market due to TRUE increased use of a poor quality product.
Also, said issue might not affect the market at all. So far the later seems to be the case.
Basically in Your 10 to 15% loss scenario, the whole works out to only an 11.3 to 11.8 billion bu total affective use crop. ( also means that NET usable corn on hand for 010 works out to well below 0 bu Long before August too).
If? you really feel the afore is a rally affect in play at this time....then simply get longer the market.
Others might feel though this is perhaps a "lookout below" juncture.
Face it, a market trend lower with over a billion to 1.5 billion bu of Your reduced net supply vs demand news could likely mean they're going to literally almost give the stuff away at some point too.
We'll see.
Good Luck.
| |
|
Anyone bullish?
