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Rally Cap time!!
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zenfarm
Posted 1/31/2010 08:34 (#1050246 - in reply to #1049700)
Subject: RE: Rally Cap time!!


South central kansas

 

 

  In terms of equities, lets look at the often quoted premise that there is a "mountian" of cash just waiting on the sidelines to get in, and that money is going to propell equities to a much higher level.

  As the recent Senate race in Mass. shows, the people are "mad as hell and they aren't going to take it anymore", meaning Gov't pump priming may very well be cut back, which in my mind, is a very good thing for the long term. 

  The following is from the Contrary Investor and looks at that "mountian" of money and their conclusions regarding that often quoted phrase.

 The full article can be found here.

http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm

 

 

"Okay, there you have it.  You get the picture at this point.  The “mountain of money” argument is certainly not completely without some merit, it’s just it seems clearly not to be the big bull argument the Street makes it out to be.  Although these are our personal opinions, some of the constituents of equity buyers that are households and corporations are not sitting on “mountains of money”.  Moreover, they are showing us directly in the data they are not in the spending mood, whether for capital expenditures, retail sales (currently resting at 2005 levels, as we have been chronicling), or equities.  And in the bigger picture of broad money in the system that is M2, the numbers just are not that impressive relative to historical context.  What does all of this tell us?  There simply does not seem to be huge “pent up demand” for equities that would be funded by existing cash balances among many constituencies of equity buyers.  That’s the message.  And what does this mean to the near term equity market outlook?  To us it means more of a structural support that would be money potentially headed to equities simply isn’t realistic.  And as we see life, this says Fed/Government sponsored liquidity has been and continues to be the most important structural support.  That and institutional momentum.  As we move into the new year it‘s simply this that we follow.  Simple enough?  A gloomy view of life?  We’re simply searching for realism and trying our best to implicitly ask the age old question, "who's the next buyer?".

 



Edited by zenfarm 1/31/2010 08:38
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