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| Well given that we didn't put the wheat in it's going to go to something full season.. which could be corn or beans... which it probably would have at some point anyway. Most of the S/D's I've seen so far next year add about 500 myn to the Corn demand base.. something on the order of 13.5 Billion bushels which is going to need more production from somewhere... Even if we pull off a near 160 yield.. that will still take a couple mln more acres... from somewhere.... ??? So there is room to add an acre or two.
We have some CRP coming out.. as was set in motion from the 08 rally.. Given the record yield this year gives us some cushion to hopefully bring this online in a responsible way. I'm not in favor of tearing out all the CRP.. as some needs to stay in grass... also this won't be the most productive ground.. but flip side.. with good stewardship.. either with no-till or a fence and some livestock... it should allow someone to earn a return... Lord knows the gov't needs to increase the tax base... and everyone along the line needs a good year to pay the bills.
Yal I expect increased acreage in fall crops this coming year.. but then again I'm certainly looking at increased demand in the feed grains side no doubt... Things don't look too out of whack for what we are trying to pull off.. Ethanol production has been on a tear since 05... if we want to have that market... we better feed it.
Personally in my state of Kansas I think we are going to have to switch some wheat acres over to Sorghum or Corn at some point over time.. we're pretty flush right now with stocks.. but as more ethanol plants restart.. that cushion could disappear in a hurry.. Also remember that China may want to increase stocks as prices come off their peaks..
There's demand to fill at some point.. it's just that the price pendulum is swinging the other way at the moment... as such things go.. that's life. It will work out okay.. just need to keep plugging along. | |
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Anyone bullish?
