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Rally Cap time!!
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JonSCKs
Posted 1/30/2010 22:36 (#1049964 - in reply to #1049700)
Subject: perspectives.


Well everyone seems to look at it differently.. I very much agree with the comment:

"I have a different perspective: I believe it would be unfortunate if consumers started spending. This deleveraging is much needed along with a rise in the savings rate."

I believe that sums it up very well..  Consumers are paying down debt or trying to get back within their means... as they should.  We are running a huge deficit and it doesn't look like anyone else is going to willingly carry it for us without a cost.. (see your post below of just one of the many dangers of foreign debt...)  So seeing an increase in the savings rate isn't all bad as we have a lot of debt that must be financed also in this country.  The debt/savings contraction has ended.. granted we are at a smaller economy than we were just months ago.. but the trends are pointed higher.

The debate about the inventory drawdown whether bullish or not.. at some point we are going to have to start making things again in this Country.  Companies have pared down employees to maintain profitability but by doing so they have reduced the capacity to operate.  At some point we will see job growth.. possibly in next weeks report as sooner or later companies are going to have to start bringing people back online in order to do the work.  You can't live off of inventories forever...

The fact that the markets basically shrugged off a 5.7% GDP number.. well at least we aren't over heating... people may not want to believe it but we are improving... in a couple of months as the signs become more obvious the momentum should build.

Hey if nothing else look at farmers.. despite losing numbers for years.. we still brought in (most of) the biggest corn and soybean crops in US history.  That's certainly a productivity gain.. and it ought to put someone to work.

 

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