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WC MN | Recently watched saw Mark Gold and Jerry Gulke on tv and John Roach in a differnt appearence. Gold and Gulke seemed to be bearish but Roach seemed more optimistic about prices. I know all 3 have a service to sell and want to be able to back up what they are saying to clients when they make appearances. In full disclosure I subscribe to Roach and have not sold a lot of 2010 corn but am well sold on soybeans per his recommendations. Roach made the comment that he does not believe that the usda has factored in the lighter test weights. I know that point has been argued up and down but I'm not sure if we will know the real answer until March, if then. Our area of MN has a lot of 50# TW corn and areas to our north have lower than that. He also believes that the demand numbers on all fronts should be met. Obviously there is some fact and some opinion in anything these guys tell us. Some of the other guys seem to believe the numbers are all gospel and may only get worse. USDA right or wrong does seem to surprise us a lot lately.
We have a situation where a certain percent of crop is still in field and loss is occurring everyday. We have untold bushels that is wet in storage and we are loosing bushels everyday. We have wet saturated and in many cases un-tilled and largely un-fertilized soils. We have demand that is telling us we need another big crop in 2010 to satisfy it. Ethanol blends may go from 10% to 15%
I realize the little bit we loose to field loss and spoilage is just a drop in the bucket. I realize that 5 or 6 million acres did not get planted to wheat. I realize that hybrids are better every year and our yield potential is higher than ever. Input prices are much better than a year ago. Last year many parts of major producing areas had less than ideal conditions but we still raised a record crop. Outside markets and other influences matter more than in any time in history.
My question is, after factoring in all the bullish and bearish sides to the arguement, is corn in a downward slide for the year or is there hope? At some point I would think a type of weather scare will develope but that is not a given, and by the time we have one we could be at much higher or more likely lower prices. A 30 cent rally not get us as far if we are coming from $2.50. Will we plant 90 million acres of corn? Are the areas that didn't plant wheat gonna split that between corn and beans? Are we just taking it for granted that they will when in fact that may not happen? Just hoping to get some insight from what other folks think. | |
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Anyone bullish?
