If that analysis is right, being short gold could be a really bad thing.

Here is some information you might be interested in from Ted Butler about the short position of a handful of big investment banks. Now I suppose you could listen to that interview and say "hey, those JP Morgan and Goldman guys hire the brightest traders in the industry so them being so short the market must be the thing to do". Or one might take the opposite position and think along the lines of Ted Butler that when those unbelievably huge positions are forced to unwind......... I know I'm not going to be short gold when they do.

The "best and brightest" guys they hired for their Quant funds (posted in another earlier thread) didn't work out so well in the end, although they did great for a long time. This kind of smacks of what chaos may happen in the gold/silver market when JP's position can't be settled. Except everyone who knows anything about those markets will not have to be guessing who is on the short side and getting mutilated. If it were ordinary traders up against them the big players can have their way with about anybody. When China, India and other COUNTRIES are buying gold, my money is on the other countries wining. Even the big investment banks can't go up against major countries and expect a good outcome.

I have never put too much faith in charts. They seem to work really well for hindsight but predicting things.......... too many "black swans" lurking around in the bushes these days. They strike me as being right in the same category as the Quants......... they work as long as the system is following the rules of the past. I don't see too many of the near past rules being followed by the market recently so I would be leery of trusting a tool that can't anticipate the events that can potentially happen in the next couple years. Events that this country has either never seen or at least not seen in many years.

Throw out the rule book. Seek safety. Worry about the return OF capital, not the return TO capital for a couple of years.

The trick to my advice is determining what is "safe".

John