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| I'm not trying to "twist" any numbers. We're currently producing, what, 10.5 billion gallons of Ethanol? If you have a positive energy balance of 30%, that gives you a net of 3.15 billion gallons. Right now, we are using around 162 billion gallons a year. So you are currently replacing around 1.9% of the U.S. gasoline usage on a net basis. Now, if you want to get to 10%, then you are going to have to make around 54 billion gallons of Ethanol, using around 20 billion bushels of corn. Yeah, that won't cause any problems. Keep in mind, the Ethanol industry wasn't gotten rolling to wean us off of foreign oil. It was ramped up to provide a market for corn. Let's not lose sight of that fact. We can spend money wisely, developing realistic energy alternatives, or we can continue to pour money down rat holes. Maybe we'll get some huge breakthroughs with cellulosic? RFA thinks we can reduce gasoline usage by 30% with cellulosic, but, unsurprisingly, I can't find the conversion numbers anywhere on either ton or energy basis. Maybe there will be some huge breakthroughs with algae(man, that's gonna be a lot of scum skimmin'). But, we need to be realistic about the path we choose, and the very real ramifications of that path. If we want to be energy independent, corn ethanol most certainly isn't that path. Maybe a teensy weensy part of it, but, barely a paving stone. | |
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USDA Dec 1 STOCKS 10.934 Billion Bushels.
