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| November 15th: national corn harvest 54% completed
When was the data officially collected? I would guess that they surely started collecting during the last 2 weeks of November. Even if you argue that the crop was 70% complete as an average when the data was collected, a great deal of the remaining 30% was corn that was likely 5-10% lower in test weight. We didn't get hit by the frost that our neighbors just to the north did, but we still saw at least a 5% reduction in test weight. From Route 34 north in Illinois, a great deal of the corn was under 50 pounds. We saw a great deal from 52-53 pounds. Let's use the low end of this test weight reduction and do some math.
13.2 Billion bushels
30% still in the field when the report numbers were "guessed" at = 3.96 billion bushels
5% reduction for test weight = 3.96 x .95 = 3.762 actual bushels
3.96-3.762 = .198 Billion bushels = 200 million bushels
This alone would bring the crop down to 13.0 billion
I think my math is extremely conservative.
From the report:
"Illinois' 2009 corn production was 2.065 billion bushels, with an average yield of 175 bushels per acre." Last year was 179 bu/acre for Illinois. I don't know one farmer in this area who came within 4 bushels of last year's farm average. Keep in mind that Illinois alone accounts for over 2 billion of the national bushels. I have spoken with seed reps from several "large" seed companies, and they said that very few areas in Illinois saw last year's yields.
My point, stated for the last time: The USDA should have kept the numbers alone until they had a BETTER handle on actual yields. Instead they guessed and took over 10% off the corn price.
How about this for another conspiracy: Crop Insurance Guarantee (Set during the month of February)
Lower the price of corn, less the government commitment
This should get all you Pro-USDA guys going.
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DID NOT INTEND TO START WWIII
