|
| Funny you should bring up the phantom acres... although it was wet and people did have a time getting those planted... Now we wonder how much still unharvested will be brought in.. like the planting... probably not every last acre.. but probably more than first thought also..
USDA err's but hopefully over time the error's cancel themselves out... kind of like me farming.. Never perfect.. but hopefully.. "good enough."
12.9 to 13 BB... yal... I could see that.
The CRP acres and all the wheat ground not planted that everyone is talking about next year... 1 mln acres in Texas and 700 k in Ks.. will NOT raise 160 bpa corn... (well probably not again.. atleast for awhile...)
Now if Illinois and Iowa crank out a bumper crop over trend like Ks did this year.... hmm.. I might not have enough sold. You have to admit though that cool and somewhat wet was good this year overall... I just think the 09 season was an "above average" year... bank it when it occurs but don't count on it.
Next year could be "below average."
I don't know how the funds will crank this info through their computers... good luck.
Basically we raised a 13 bb crop during a year that we will use 13 bb... and demand is headed to 14 bb within two years... The resources structure is to bring poorer yielding ground on line.. 60 bpa dryland milo..?? in a decent year.. that would take another 16 mln acres... Granted the SRW in Ill can go to 200 bpa corn... so more like 9 mln CRP acres in the plains coupled with 2 mln Corn belt acres switched... or some combination of about a 100 possibilities... but it's not a slam dunk... going to be a lot of work for someone to raise another 1 billion bushels.. on top of this years RECORD.
All of this in real time as wheat yields go from bust to bumper to bust to...??? etc Everything cycles... we have to make the cycles meet the demand and cover over the difference with storage.. which is going to take ALOT MORE than we have now... A LOT MORE... like 2.5 billion bushels in storage for that short crop year... it's coming.. only question is when? | |
|
USDA Dec 1 STOCKS 10.934 Billion Bushels.
