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| "All models are wrong... but some are useful.."
one of the better quotes from a prof in school who knew what he was talking about.
You are correct it is a guess.
Looking at the numbers.. Dec 1 USDA Corn Stocks report. 10,933,676,000 total in storage "somewhere" of which 3,488,676,000 was in commercial storage and that's a pretty firm number which leaves the balance "on-farm" which is more of a guess at 7,445,000,000 which is a Billion bushels more than on farm last year of 6,482,000,000 and 3,590,106,000 for a total LAST YEAR of 10,072,106,000.
Now I believe I read somewhere that USDA was going to consider the Crop yet to be harvested as "on-farm" in stocks... so that could contradict a little with what I was "assuming" earlier...???? So it's possible that the 7.445 number is off...
Looking State by state: Ill 1,879 total of which 1,200 on farm vs 1,992 last year with 1,100 on farm. Indiana is up to 757 this year of which 570 on farm vs 680 last year of which 500 was on farm. Iowa 2,177 total of which 1,450 on farm vs 2,019 last year of which 1,300 on farm. Kansas 410 total of which 140 on farm vs 365 LY of which 120 on farm. Minn 1,216 of which 940 on vs 1,029 of which 770.. that's a pretty big jump.. Also Nebr of 1,333 of which 930 vs 1,186 of which 780 was on farm last year... N Dak 181 of which 150 on vs 227 of which 170 on last year.. smaller crop there or at least in the bin... Ohio 467 of which 330 on farm vs 360 of which 260 on farm.. South Dakota has a big jump in stocks with 632 total of which 510 on farm vs 487 of which 380 on farm last year.
Nothing really stands out to me.. Colorado, In, Ia, Ks, Ky, La, Md, Mn, Mo, NY, Oh, SC, SD, Tx, Va and Wa all had Larger Off Farm numbers this year vs last year. So the states that lagged on harvest.. Ill, Ia, the Dakota's, Minn and Nebr etc.. basically the NW Cornbelt.. there's some error uncertainty to be determined yet but... nothing really unexpected... at this point and as they said.. they will take another look at it on the next report.
I understand your point.. it could be a factor.. I don't believe it's a major one but... possible.
As I type this the wash out from the report is almost over.. we are almost positive on corn futures for the day. Now we trade the numbers vs the direction the market was leaning... when you look at demand increasing 500 mln bushels year over year.. you realize that the markets job of ensuring enough production is NOT OVER.
jmho... I could be wrong. | |
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USDA Dec 1 STOCKS 10.934 Billion Bushels.
