Ok I'm not saying the USDA is intentionally throwing the numbers off, but how can you act like there 100% accurate when they even don't.

Revision Policy: On-farm and off-farm stocks are subject to revision the quarter following initial publication and again in the following December 1 Grain Stocks report published in January each year. Revisions can be made when late reports are received, errors are detected in reporting and calculations, and production estimates are revised. Estimates will also be reviewed following the 5-year Census of Agriculture. No revisions to these years will be made after that date.


Reliability: Reliability of the on-farm and off-farm stocks must be treated separately because the survey designs for the two surveys are very different. The on-farm stocks estimates are subject to sampling variability because all operations holding on-farm stocks are not included in the sample. This variability, as measured by the relative standard error at the U.S. level, is approximately 1.4 percent for corn, 1.7 percent for soybeans, and 2.1 percent for all wheat. This means that chances are approximately 95 out of 100 that survey estimates for stocks will be within plus or minus 2.8 percent for corn, 3.4 percent for soybeans, and 4.2 percent for all wheat of the value that could be developed by averaging the estimates produced from all possible samples selected from the same population and surveyed using the same procedures. The relative standard errors for sorghum, barley, and oats are 12.0, 4.5, and 3.6 percent, respectively


So you can say elevator storage is accurate because it went across a scale and has RECORDS, So With the RECORD crop inventory we would have more elevator storage wouldn't we? But the USDA shows we had less, yes LESS elevator storage of corn then in 08 2/3's of this corn crop hasn't been across a scale yet. So all this extra crop is stored on farm, and what did the USDA just tell us about the reliability of on farm stocks compared to off farm stocks.

Then look into the data a little more the USDA's own numbers say On farm storage capacity only increased 2% from 08! Yet On farm storage of corn is up 15%, soybeans up 4%, and wheat up 23%. With lighter test weight corn this year any giving bin would hold less bushels then in 08 not more.

So we gained 2% more farm storage But are storing almost 15% more crop? How does this work unless a large fraction of farm storage sat empty last year.