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| That is what USDA FOUND.. 10.934 Billion Bushels.. THREE MONTHS after the start of the Crop Year.
This was 856 million bushels MORE than last year at the same point in time WHILE X percent of the crop WAS STILL OUT IN THE FIELD....
So USDA says we carried in 1.674 Billion Bushels... then we harvested part of the crop.. used part of it for Feed, Ethanol and Exports.. and on Dec 1.. Checked the collective bins across the entire Country and found 10,934,000,000 bushels.
If you have a demand base of 13 billion bushels then during the first quarter you probably used at least a quarter of it... or 3.25 billion bushels..(probably more...) so that means at least 14,184 minus the 1,674 carry in.. ALREADY GIVES YOU a crop of 12,510 million bushels.. with some STILL IN THE FIELD... USDA says the crop was 13,151... so was there 641 Million bushels out in the field AT THAT POINT IN TIME?
My guess at least that much... next question how much will be harvested.. well probably well over half has been brought in by now... so that puts you up to 12,830 by now... well OVER what Lansworth is saying.. with more to come.. Will we get it all? Probably not.. but what are the EXACT NUMBERS? was there 800 mln to come as of Dec 1 or will the final haul be closer to 500...by the time the snow melts???
They will look at it again in March.. with the NEXT STOCKS report telling the tale.. probably we will recognize somewhere between a 12.9 and a 13.3.. will the crop be in by then..?? probably not 100% but we should be able to whittle down the error factor..
Again on Dec 1.. you already have 12,510 in the bin.. NOW the question is HOW MUCH MORE do you add from what was left.
Again I will re-iterate.. we could see a rally from these levels as we HAVE TO DO IT ALL OVER AGAIN NEXT YEAR... and it's not a given that we will see as Big of yields as we were blessed with this year.
Even with 6 mln more acres we will NEED to raise the THIRD highest yielding crop in History.. at 158 bpa.
THAT CROP is NOT IN THE BIN yet....
sorry to type in bold... but people.. at least make CREDIBLE arguments.
Edited by JonSCKs 1/14/2010 15:00
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USDA Dec 1 STOCKS 10.934 Billion Bushels.
