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cropsey, il 61731 | Thanks SC, certainly we are in an unusual political climate with the gov't 'controlling' private industries, so there is a climate of distrust for anything to do with the gov't when it comes to business. However, not being as long I see the report as consistant with USDA behavior (they are statisticians - worse than engineers). Correct me if I'm wrong, but they tend to establish a number and look for evidence that the number may need adjustment. It seems the initial number tends to rule unless they find over whelming evidence to change it (ie. wide spread disease/blights). Right now there is 600mbu out in the field in a generally unknown condition, but their experience has been that this isn't the end of the world. Many of us have never experienced this and only see it as a 30% loss situation - as you have pointed out often the crop grows in these circumstances (and that was before the better genetics).
My bottom line is that the USDA did not see enough reason to change their numbers no matter what consensus we come up with. In the absense of actual weighed bushels they have to use their experience and the data they have - apparently it says leave the yield over 13bbu for now. Just to throw gas on the fire, if the better genetics hold up, much of the corn still standing could yield more that expected and run the yield number higher (and that would be irratating - I'm still long - we all are we're farmers).
Ok now, using the trading advice we have been given - the trend is your friend - what should we do? Worry about unsold grain or buy puts and ride the market down and sell at the bottom. Frankly, I suck as a trader (CME approved trader rating btw) and will generally worry about unsold bushels.
Thanks,
Pat | |
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One More Time
