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| The statistical data has to fit within a 95% confidence level of accuracy. USDA has very detailed data along with historical yield data for each area....if a producer reports information which is out of profile & does not fit the conditions of the area....the computer will kick it out. If the report is within an area where there has been some variability (weather: wind hail & etc) a crop reporter will evaluate on site.
The reports issued by USDA & Schedule are part of USDA Policy & Law as to what is reported, when it is reported & etc....therefore, the data has to be accumulated a little bit in advance by each office. This past year, growing conditions varied widely. Frost affected some areas. Because the entire free world has access to these reports affecting a variety of decisions it would make the most sense to issue a report considered as close to accurate as possible & verify the bushels via the next two stocks in all positions reports.
The reality of this past year....in my opinion, we never will know the exact size of either crop & is why the trade accepts the numbers issued. Each of the Major exporters and firms such as Informa also run estimate models..& if the USDA departure was of a high magnitude the private reporters would asking questions. The measurement of our crops is very accurate & the information being utilized by several agencies including CIA, FBI, DIA.....it is taken very seriously as I recall a couple of those agencies verifying data through us (exporter) in the old days. None of these folks care one whit about the price of any commodity....it is used in the formulation of various contingency plans & etc. | |
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One More Time
