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| I do not believe I am reading these comments about USDA. I heard this stuff 50+ years ago.
It is ridiculous.
USDA crop reporters utilize 'hands on' the most sophisticated crop measurement systems available.
If any of us were faced with bushels unharvested yet in the field, which approach would you use? USDA, in my opinion, performed correctly. Go with what they have and compare it to the stocks....then re-survey. As I posted several times on my website....historically big crops get bigger....and in the past grain stored as unharvested suffers minimal loss.
A resurvey in my opinion may well yield AN EVEN LARGER CORN CROP & a slight downward adjustment in soybeans.
They also utilize sorting software to eliminate the 'outliers' (farmer reports which are purposely altered or do not fit within their statistical confidence level).
Many present day bloggers spout theories absent facts...most don't have a clue. Most like to listen to themselves talk. Ego. Give me three minutes with any so-called expert & I will show you the phoneys.
The fellows who do the actual work in the crop reporting service are dedicated....any Administration official or cabinet member most likely is completely unaware the crop report is to be issued. At this point, with our trade deficit, if any official did have a preference, they would hope for higher prices, not lower.
In my prime I traded more corn futures than any other broker. I certainly would not put my money on the table if I thought the game was rigged....I long ago investigated that avenue.
We enjoy free markets. Now with computer trading platforms the markets are even more objective..
Want to see if you can control a market?
Open an account and buy 12 mil. bushel of corn and note your return fills.....after you have bought the 12 million, what then is your next step....YOU GOTTA PUT UP THE MONEY TO KEEP IT..or Sell it.
I have a great many old IRISH friends who own extensive tracts of farm land, are hands on and also are members...trading just like everyone else....
I have many Jewish friends who've accomplished more advances towards initiating ag marketing tools and systems than the Irish over at the old CBOT. In the old school, CBOT was Irish Catholic....the Merc was Jewish.
The business of grain is 1) cost control 2) maximize net income (meaning calculate the trade off between carrying charge potential versus the interest expense of holding inventory).....on farm storage, which I have always encouraged, enables the capture of some of the basis opportunity.....a good operator, in some years, may well have empty storage by March 1st.
When I see folks witch hunting...it has always been DIRECT EVIDENCE THEY ARE TOO LONG....in the old days, if I heard whining or complaints from a trader standing next to me...I immediately sold. Immediately. Best indicator there is. Test him to see just how much money he wants to put up....soon they choke.
There is speculation.
There is marketing.
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One More Time
