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Red River Valley | Zach your statement " how come nobody posts anything before the report" well twice on jan.11 I posted that I thought the market would not handle the report well. On one post ( Monday morning comments 1-11-10 ) I stated that the yeild needed to be raised based on what My crop was and various reports from around the country. Then on another post ( Corn price after the report 1-11-10 ) I laid out why I didn't think there was much of a chance of corn ralling even if the report was bullish.
was there many, no was there some yes- but if everybody would have been looking for these results than they would not have been a shocker.
the question is how low can we go from here again I think the answer will be a shocker ( a retest of the harvest lows is not out of the question ) I think that we eventually will go well below those levels but not until after the crop is in the ground for the most part I would look for the corn and bean price to drop all the way until early july and will be very close to LDP area at that time. than we will get a second half weather scare that will stabilze and raise prices a little.
I see nothing at this time that will bring $4.50 new crop corn back to the table or $10 new crop beans back. but than my crystal ball is not very good on those weather cycles.
I think a person needs to truly ask them selves where they can break even on corn and bean production going forward because I don't think $2.75 cbot corn and $6.50 cbot beans will work all that well.
as of right now the Index funds think that commadities are a good place to be in a hedge against inflation at this point some very smart people who do nothing but study and deal with monatary policies ( fed board of governers ) think that Inflation is the last of our worries maybe that's teh reason to think it should be the first of our worries but since most commad's are priced for Inflation I think that it will have a hard time sneaking up on anybody. and if what is starting to happen in china continues for about a week then that becomes a real game changer.
I know these are just "crazy bear thoughts" but for about a year now outside of china buying our beans nobody has really wanted to buy any grain from us and at this point forward I beleive that we will need to see some real strong demand for a rally and I just don't see it if we get to $3.00 cbot on corn can we see it? sure but who wants to see that. hope fully I'm wrong and we get some demand going in the next couple of weeks and this thng bottoms out shortly.
Today I think that 30+ lower is in play at some point and any rallies will be sold pretty fast. remember that a lot of farmer's need to move grain quite a bit of it is already sitting in elevators. | |
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A trading lesson for anyone interested. (Learning tool)
