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Ontario | I listened to some of your advice djm, more on the 2010 crop. (As the carry worked well in that case.) Our 2009 corn pricing has not been quite as easy, as the CDN $ has been high & climbing vs the US $. (I was getting close, but the dollar would pull it away via the basis!) I do not have to sell this crop in the bin tommorrow, and as you say there will probably be another go around; and just be ready for it.
What I do know... The way USDA is going with the surprises, I will be sold the day before the major report! (LOL, that will be just about the time when it finally goes the other way!)
Overnights have started a bit more stable...
Here's a exert from DTN's John Sanow's Closing Market comments from Tuesday, to keep in mind:
"One of the biggest surprises in Tuesday's batch of reports was the 230-mb increase in production to 13.151 bb, when the average estimate was calling for a 100-mb decrease. Global and domestic ending stocks were also increased more than expected, though the latter could have been worse if not for a 150-mb increase to feed demand. Many are questioning these numbers, and with good reason. Shortly after the report was released, NASS said it would resurvey acreage unharvested when the previous survey was conducted. This information will be released in March, so expect further revisions to be made."
Lets put it in perspective:
USDA adding 230 mln more bu corn. Yield was put at 165.2, 4.9 bu more than previous record in 2003. Hard to believe with poor test weights and 500 mln + bu still in the fields. | |
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A trading lesson for anyone interested. (Learning tool)
