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| "Hold that tiger... hold that tiger... hold that tiger"
The numbers that stick out to me are on the Corn Demand side...
07/08 total demand of 12.737 bil bu (with very good exports of 2.437) with a 93.5 mln acre crop, 08/09 12.056, 09/10 of now 13.070.
Note that USDA RAISED the season average price range while also RAISING Carry Out... not always the expected result.
Why? Ethanol demand:.. 07/08 of 3.049, 08/09 3.677, 09/10 of 4.200.. That's growth of 628 mln bushels year over year in 07/08 to 08/09 and 523 mln bu in 08/09 to 09/10... next year...??? Do we add another 500 mln bu with the economy recovering and Brazilian sugar mill production pushing the sugar side of the equation still recovering from last years short crop?
That could take total US Corn demand to...????? make a guess...??? 13.500 bil bu ASSUMING (actually just a wild guess..) all things stay equal.. feed demand and exports.. and add about 500 mln to ethanol given the very recent trend..
Now what kind of yield for next year? Most that I have seen is around the 162 area... which is pretty dang good... means we need to harvest almost 3.73 Mln MORE acres than this year...
What if next year's yield doesn't do 162?
Now.. given the trends.. useage could be up again in the following year also but surely not as much.. We are going to approach a long term need for about a 14.00 Billion Bu US Corn Crop year in year out.. which will probably take another 7/10 mln acres of feed grain production.
7 to 10 Million ADDITIONAL acres planted, harvested.. and STORED over the next two years.. hmmm... okay.. some out of wheat.. some out of Soybeans... some CRP... not going to make 162... need a couple more combines.. some more 16/24 row planters.. oh and trucks.. need probably 8 mln acres times 160 = 1.28 bil bu additional divided by legal 52,000 lbs load.. means 1,378,461 additional loads.. assuming an extra 150 per truck... need 9,190 additional semi's to help bring it all in... hmmm...
Oh and storage.. and DRYERS!!! going to need to go whether the crop is ready or not... hmmm how many dryers? Well... how many can we build?
talk about a stimulus program. | |
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Corn demand growth...
