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| (The information below was emailed to me this morning)
From our small farming window of the world, I have to believe that final yields on both corn and beans will be lowered. The question is... how much of a rally does the government want these markets to have? My guess is that the numbers will be skewed to keep the report as neutral as possible. The economy is still too fragile to handle a large commodity rally. I simply do not trust the government (in this case the USDA).
USDA will issue Final est. of US 2009 crop production, new est. of US/World end stocks. Dec 1 US grain stocks and first est. of US 2010 winter wheat acres on Tuesday. Following is a recap of the report.
2009 US CROP PRODUCTION ESTIMATES (Million Bushels, Except Cotton in Thous. Bales)
2008Final Current USDA Avg. Trade Est. Trade Range
Corn 12,101 12,921 _______ 12,821 12,576 – 12,996
Soybeans 2,967 3,319 _______ 3,338 3,219 – 3,422
All Cotton 12,815 12,590 _______ NA NA
2009/10 ENDING STOCKS ESTIMATES (Million Bushels, Except Cotton in Million Bales)
Crop USDA December USDA January Avg. Trade Est. Trade Range
Corn 1,675 _______ 1,587 1,424 – 1,731
Soybeans 255 _______ 235 170 – 319
Wheat 900 _______ 914 866 – 955
Cotton 4.50 _______ NA NA
DEC. 1, 2009, GRAIN & SOYBEAN STOCKS ESTIMATES (Million Bushels)
Crop Dec. 1, USDA Avg. Trade Trade
2008 Estimate Range
Corn 10,078 _______ 10,661 10,401 – 10,866
Soybeans 2,276 _______ 2,415 2,377 – 2,449
Wheat 1,422 _______ 1,759 1,695 – 1,809
2010 WINTER WHEAT SEEDINGS ESTIMATES (Thousand Acres)
2009 USDA Avg. Trade Trade
Estimate Range
Hard Red Winter 31,650 _______ 30,205 28,977 – 31,572
Soft Red Winter 8,310 _______ 6,991 5,860 – 8,059
Winter White 3,350 _______ 3,406 3,200 – 3,763
All Winter Wheat 43,311 _______ 40,501 38,387 – 42,496
Cash fundamentalist look for record 2010 South America soybean supply and increase US farmer selling of corn could put a top in futures soon. Malaysian Dec palm oil stocks were higher than expected. Palm oil futures dropped 42 points on the news. As always the direction of the dollar and energies could dictate the flow of money in or out of commodities. China Dec gold and Crude oil imports were record high. Soybean imports were also a record 4.7 mmt but below est. near 5.25 mmt. Weekly us export inspections are est. near 9-16 mil bu wheat, 28-35 mil bu corn and 41-47 mil bu soybeans. Cold US winter weather is slowing pipeline movement to the gulf which is slowing new sales. Domestic markets mostly quiet in front of USDA Jan report.
US Midwest weather was cold and mostly dry this weekend. Temps should warm later this week. This could help corn harvest pace. South America weather looks normal, which should help crops there.
Traditional funds sold 5,000 soybean contracts on Fri. They are net long 45,200 contracts. They also bought 500 soy meal and sold 2,000 soy oil to put their net-long positions at about 34,000 and 14,700, respectively. Traditional funds bought 5,000 contracts of corn to put their net-long position at about 187,100 contracts. They bought 3,000 Chicago wheat contracts, which put their net-short position at about 29,200 contracts.
Index funds were shown to be long about 159,400 soybean contracts ( -2), 57,900 soy oil (-1), 382,500 corn (+3), 181,900 Chicago wheat (-1).
Edited by Illinoisfan 1/11/2010 12:09
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Monday Morning Comments: Tomorrow's Report
