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Transportation woes and basis....
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JonSCKs
Posted 1/10/2010 22:51 (#1016050 - in reply to #1015839)
Subject: Beanies are up tonight.


Overnight has some life (at least for now..) in the beanies.

I've been following the Sugar market a little.. not sure I know much about all of that.. the mills in SAm can switch part of their production stream back and forth between Sugar and Ethanol.. as you note.. Tightness in sugar is indirectly pushing up global Ethanol... which is helping US producers for a change.

Good for US producers as of now... US ethanol stealing some of SAm's markets.. who'd of thunk that?

Not sure I know what to wish for in this environment... some stability would be nice. I think if we can secure the feed grain production to ensure filling the demand base for livestock and ethanol... maybe we can keep the profitability going (or returning.. which ever the case may be) for everyone.

90 mln acres eh? Wow you don't ask for much.. However, given some of the S/D's I've looked at.. that would only have us going sideways at best on the C/O.. In fact.. might need as much as 93 mln acres.. again.. one of these days.. we may have a below trendline yield. We will probably want at least a 2 bil C/O before the next short crop.. that almost looks impossible right now...???

I'd like to see us plant enough to cover everything.. and build a bin or two.. if we don't use it in 10/11... there's always "next year." Now that we have an ethanol market... might as well try to fill it.

Going to be another interesting year.. needless to say.
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