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| Corn and soybeans continue to fall, posting low after low. As the charts continue to look horrible.
The wheat market is still hanging in there with their key reversal from the other day. Today at one point Chicago touched $6 but couldn’t hold on.
Tomorrow is options expiration. So you are going to see a lot of you guys with basis contracts will have to price them tomorrow and some will have till first notice day.
With options expiration they will probably try to pin corn right at $4.00. I wouldn’t be surprised to see corn start with a $3 tomorrow or Monday. Then maybe the funds will finally have a reason to cover and say enough is enough. But we don’t have a catalyst other than we are heavily oversold and the funds are short.
Cattle looks like a market that could potentially be running into resistance and topping. Reminds you of the exact opposite of trying to catch a falling knife. But the trend is your friend and right now that trend is higher. For most of you it might make sense to establish a floor and spread your risk.
The wheat market is personally the last grain I’d want to be selling. This market is still a sleeper long term. The acres are going to continue getting planted aorund the world and the world wheat situation is getting tighter every year. Long term the higher quality wheats should lead, but short term I think Chicago will be the one who leads. I think the stages are set for higher prices but it could still be weeks.
For the grains, it feels like we are in the process of making these lows. But we continue to grind lower. And the bigger question is how big is the bounce when we get it and will it hold.
The USDA vs CONAB Brazil situation doesn’t add up. It’s baffling that with South Americas inflation situation that their USDA would have motivation to say their crop is smaller than our USDA thinks.
I think we will eventually we will see that, but first we are going to have to get through these basis contracts that haven’t been proactive..
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Market audio comments - more lows in corn & beans
