Ive been curious about treasury borrowings and how the debt limits effect the amount borrowing per quarter. In my previous post (https://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=1110415&posts=14#M10210125), I estimated net increase in debt of $1.75 trillion in CY2023. If Q4 of CY2023 borrowing averages that of the first three quarters, the net borrowing for CY2023 would be $2.8 Trillion, using Q1 actual and Q2 and Q3 Treasury estimates. From https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1453 : Quarter | Jan Estimate | April Estimate | Actual | Jan-March 2023 | 932 | | 657 | April-Jun 2023 | 277 | 726 | | July-Sep 2023 | | 733 | |
#s in Billion $. The Treasury's April estimates assume a debt limit suspension or lifting, per the link above. From the minutes of Treasury Borrowing Committee (https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1462) released May 3, it is clear the treasury borrowing committee considers the markets ability to absorb large amounts of loan issuance: "Debt Manager Katzenbach then reviewed primary dealers’ estimates of the market’s capacity to absorb additional Treasury bill issuance once the debt limit is suspended or increased. Dealers broadly agreed that there is ample scope to expeditiously increase the supply of bills. Respondents cited record-high money market mutual fund assets under management and the more than $2 trillion in the Federal Reserve’s Overnight Reverse Repo Facility as evidence of significant demand for short-dated, high quality liquid assets. Dealers noted that the bill market could accommodate increases across benchmark tenors, but that the largest increases should occur in the shorter maturity bills. The median estimate for how much Treasury could increase bill issuance over three months without causing significant price deviations from fair value was $600 billion, though some estimates exceeded $1 trillion. Katzenbach noted that dealers encouraged Treasury to be responsive to potential market-based indicators of stress in the bill market when replenishing its cash balance." My view is that yes, the treasury market may be able to absorb large amounts of loan issuance, but that demand comes by decreasing bank deposits and pulls money out of stocks! One thing that is not clear to me is "treasury buybacks," from (https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1460), issued May 3: "Based on feedback from a broad variety of market participants, including the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee and primary dealers, Treasury believes it would be beneficial to conduct regular buyback operations for cash management and liquidity support purposes. " This term makes me think of the treasury buying back previous loans they received. Why would they be buying back loans, while at the same time issuing new loans? Thoughts? Am I interpreting "buybacks" incorrectly?
Edited by Crossflow 5/7/2023 09:00
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