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| Still is no evidence price is rationing demand.
Old crop wheat remains in strong hands.
On a fundamental basis, the new crop wheat outlook is set up to produce surpluses in key producing regions. I remain committed to long corn vs short wheat spreads in the deferred months. It is a volatile spread! & not for the faint of heart!
China is still seeking more vegetable oil.
Some of the recent strength has been attributed to concern over the dry conditions in northern China. China is not a big importer of wheat and is not expected to become one.
The Canadian Wheat Board said all-wheat production would rise by 44 percent.
The CWB projected national wheat exports would rise to 19.5 million tonnes in the 2008/09 marketing year, which begins Aug. 1, up from 15.2 million tonnes in 2007/08.
Durum exports for the 2008/09 year were projected at 4.2 million tonnes, up 31 percent from 3.2 million tonnes in 2007/08, the CWB said.
The Ukraine is expecting to boost grain exports sharply in the new crop year. 2008/09 wheat exports could jump to 6.6 million tonnes from 1.4 million in 2007/08.
The media comment about drought in china & subsidies to local farmers has been clarified. Less than 2% of the rapeseed crop has been affected and only 17,000 hectares of wheat. The greater damage was referenced to fruit and vegetable crops.
Edited by SeniorCitizen 2/26/2008 08:58
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Observations.
