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| This data is assumed to be neutral to bullish for corn & beans & negative for wheat.
OK, here are the initial S/D's for new crop. In the case of all three, the
major assumption is that export demand will drop significantly for all. In the
case of corn and soybeans, limited supply is a major reason for containing
exports. That will be easier said than done. There is currently "NO SIGN" that
demand is being rationed.
Note also that USDA has left the 3200 for ethanol intact.
In the case of wheat, I do expect exports to fall as the key global exporting
nations make a production comeback in 2008.
In the case of wheat the US IS NOT the primary supplier to the world like it is
in corn and soybeans.
We are likely to see a constriction in demand for US wheat IF/WHEN other key
suppliers experience a normal crop.
USDA figures are compared with an estimate by the American
Farm Bureau Federation and with USDA figures for the 2006/07
and 2007/08 marketing years. The corn marketing year opens
Sept. 1.
Corn USDA USDA AFBF USDA
(million bushels) 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2008/09
Plant (million acres) 78.3 93.6 89.5 90.0
Harvest (mln acres) 70.6 86.5 82.3 82.7
Yield (bu/acre) 149.1 151.1 154.0 154.9
Begin stocks 1,967 1,304 1,438 1,438
Production 10,535 13,074 12,674 12,810
Imports 12 15 13 15
Total supply 12,514 14,393 14,125 14,263
Feed, residual 5,598 5,950 5,750 5,400
Food, seed, industry 3,488 4,555 5,400 5,470
Corn for ethanol 2,117 3,200 4,000 4,100
Total domestic use 9,086 10,505 11,150 10,870
Exports 2,125 2,450 2,200 2,150
Total use 11,210 12,955 13,250 13,020
End stocks 1,304 1,438 875 1,243
CCC inventory 0 0 N/A N/A
Free stocks 1,304 1,438 N/A N/A
Outstanding loans 116 230 N/A N/A
Avg farm price ($/bu) 3.04 4.00 4.60 4.60
Soybeans USDA USDA AFBF USDA
(Mln bu) 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2008/09
Plant (Mln ac) 75.5 63.6 69.5 71.0
Harvest (Mln ac) 74.6 62.8 68.5 70.1
Yield (bu/ac) 42.7 41.2 42.0 42.1
Begin stocks 449 574 175 160
Production 3,188 2,585 2,877 2,950
Imports 9 6 8 6
Total supply 3,647 3,165 3,060 3,116
Crushings 1,806 1,835 1,840 1,860
Exports 1,118 1.005 950 910
Seed 78 86 84 N/A
Residual 70 79 75 N/A
Seed and residiual N/A N/A N/A 177
Total use 3,073 3,005 2,949 2,947
End stocks 574 160 111 169
Avg farm price ($/bu) 6.43 10.40 11.75 11.50
Wheat USDA USDA AFBF USDA
(Mln bu) 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2008/09
Plant (Mln ac) 57.3 60.4 62.0 64.0
Harvest (Mln ac) 46.8 51.0 54.4 54.4
Yield (bu/ac) 38.7 40.5 43.0 42.8
Begin stocks 571 456 292 272
Production 1,812 2,067 2,339 2,330
Imports 122 90 100 100
Total supply 2,505 2,613 2,731 2,702
Food 933 945 945 950
Seed 81 86 90 81
Food, seed, industrial N/A N/A N/A 1,039
Feed, residual 125 110 175 175
Total domestic use 1,140 1,141 1,210 1,214
Exports 909 1,200 1,100 950
Total use 2,049 2,341 2,310 2,164
End stocks 456 272 421 538
CCC inventory 41 35 N/A N/A
Free stocks 415 237 N/A N/A
Outstanding loans 14 5 N/A N/A
Avg farm price ($/bu) 4.26 6.65 6.95 7.00
USDA estimates U.S. winter wheat seedings of 46.61 million
acres for harvest this year, up 4 percent from 2007.
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Supply-Demand.
