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| Having been hands-on involved in all of these markets through all the oil scares throughout the years & inflation & stagflation.....I have a somewhat different perspective. Regardless of our present condition..our economy is still a giant engine....industry quickly adjusted to each higher plateau of oil prices...in the 70's inflationary period the media was such there was no 'day after day' hammering away of inflation worry...it crept up and then became an issue to solve....we are in an era of watching forecasters and the crowd running from one side of the boat to the other in much shorter cycles....Bernanke wished to engage in asset inflation....it has, to some degree happened....we've seen commodity inflation....also various signs the global economy is building....we are the big customer of China so those issues may or may not fall into place as predicted....China needs our consumers....the cash in the hands of corporations is most likely not involved in the carry trade, more the activity of hedge funds ..my what if scenario is simply this...a contingency in the back of my mind....what if the dollar takes out the 2008 high? As I review weekly & monthly charts...folks were a lot more bearish on this recent down cycle than in the previous cycle..yet we did not take out that support. The public of the world reacts and adjusts. plans change...survival instincts are strong...there are more market oriented mechanisms in this period than back in the days of the Iron Curtain & a closed China. Just food for thought. | |
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Some What If's
