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General thoughts into year's end and my thoughts
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djmcountryboy
Posted 11/23/2009 23:26 (#935985)
Subject: General thoughts into year's end and my thoughts


Mascoutah, Illinois
I was reading "farmpro11" and his thoughts on what is on the horizon. I am going to give my two cents and take it for what it is worth. I am sure the criticism will fly from the same likely duo or trio and I won't even have to name who he or she will be.

1. I believe grains will hit their high for this marketing season on December 21, 2009. I am of the opinion you should have all of this crop sold between now and then which gives you approximately four weeks. I would even price thirty percent of my 2010 crop between now and then also. I believe beans hit $11.50 in the January contract which means we still have another $1.00 or so upside between now and December 21. I believe corn has 30-35 cents left in upside as well.
2. I believe gold reaches $1300 in the next four weeks.
3. I believe crude oil trades down into the mid $40.00's in 2010 and makes a low at $46.00.
4. I believe the dollar appreciates 15-20 percent in the next twelve months.
5. I do not see the stock market trading back down to the lows we had earlier in March. I believe the S&P 500 trades down to the 800-840 area before June of 2010. I believe we have a chance to see 1150 in the S&P 500 between now and the beginning of the New Year which gives us five more weeks of trading.
6. I believe we see 15% unemployment by the end of 2010 and another stimulus package is enacted by Congress.

My opinions and beliefs are based on the following premises.
1. The consumer is broke. Wall Street and "Main Street America" are at a disconnect. Wall Street folks got quite a bit of help from our government and the everyday common folks got little if any. The media paints this rosy picture as the markets go higher. Just wait, the shoe will drop and the positive spin the media put on this "so-called recovery" will turn back into the "world is coming to an end" in the middle of February 2010. (The brutal winter across the eastern two-thirds of the country will add to the pessimism as heating bills soar.) I look at all of the people I know, which is hundreds because I work a full-time job. 99% of these folks are flat out broke and behind on some if not all of their bills.
2. Cash preservation will be "KING" just like it was from the autumn of 2007 until March of 2009. The "savers" will continue to get $@#*& but at least they will survive.
3. The bond market seldomly has it wrong. Three month treasury bills are inverted compared to one month bills. The correction is coming in the markets and it is coming very soon and very swiftly.

I will be making the following trades in the stock market but I will not put on a position until the last week of December. I will be buying the following ETF's. "FAZ," an old Agtrader favorite and "TZA." I believe volatility will spike and I will be adding "VXX" to my portfolio as well.

AS A DISCLAIMER: THE ABOVE STATED MESSAGE IS MY OPINION AND MY OPINION ONLY. YOU CAN MAKE MONEY AND YOU CAN LOSE MONEY BY TRADING OFF OF MY OPINION. IT IS JUST "MY TWO CENTS."


Edited by djmcountryboy 11/23/2009 23:30
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